Source: Is the ‘catch’ slipping through ED’s claws? – DailyNews Live
Andrew Kunambura 4 September 2017
HARARE – “Mugabe unveils heir,” screamed one local newspaper on its front
page the morning after President Robert Mugabe named the then Justice
minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa as one of his two deputies in December 2014.
Many believed that by appointing Mnangagwa vice president, Mugabe had all
but solved the bewildering succession question; yet only days afterwards,
it downed that if anything, the mystery had only but further deepened.
Mnangagwa was at the time high-spirited as he traversed the length and
breadth of the country, speaking in a newfound proficient tone, like
someone who had the grasp of power and authority within his veritable
reach.
People have not forgotten how he would address crowds in that gratified
voice, billowing into the transducers: “sembwa inovukura zhou ichiramba
ichingofamba, vamwe vanongoramba vachitaura, vachingotaura, isu
tichingotonga, tichingotonga.”
This analogy, which he appears to have now discarded, likens those who do
not like Zanu PF to dogs that hopelessly bark at an unperturbed elephant,
which continues on its proud strides as if the dog does not even exist.
It, however, took a rude arousal to wake him from his musings as he soon
discovered that where he thought he was now in the comfort zone having
partaken in the outfoxing of his long-time rival, Joice Mujuru, he was
about to engage in by far the deadliest political fight of his life.
There is one incident which might have helped bring Mnangagwa’s attention
to the new highly formidable threat to his perceived presidential
ambitions.
It happened that at some meeting in January 2015, Zanu PF politburo member
Josiah Hungwe who is one of Mnangagwa’s ardent supporters, introduced him
as `the son of man’.
This jolted some party underlings into action, most notably Higher
Education minister Jonathan Moyo – with whom Mnangagwa had ganged up to
depose Mujuru – who told the State press which he controlled at the time
that Hungwe’s behaviour was intolerable as it could potentially create
other centres of power besides Mugabe.
The party had adopted the one centre of power concept, bestowing all
powers on Mugabe, at the December 2014 congress.
From that time, daggers were drawn against him.
First, they started just as undercurrent plots and schemes, eventually
degenerating into humiliating public retributions by Zanu PF officials of
much smaller political stature such as Mandi Chimene, Sarah Mahoka and,
lately, even relative political greenhorns like one Mubuso Chinguno of
Mutare.
Mnangagwa has seen his support base being mercilessly decimated, beginning
with the demise of his storm troopers; seven provincial youth chairpersons
namely Godwin Gomwe, Godfrey Tsenengamu, Vengai Musengi, Washington Nkomo,
Tamuka Nyoni, Edmore Samambwa and Kumbulani Mpofu who played a key role in
propping him up ahead of the last congress.
Soon afterwards, Zanu PF booted out Mnangagwa’s most loyal comrades;
leaders of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association
(Znlwva), including its chair, Chris Mutsvangwa, secretary-general Victor
Matemadanda, spokesperson Douglas Mahiya and commissar, Francis Nhando,
after they openly rebelled against the current order in the ruling party,
agitating for Mnangagwa to immediately take over as president.
In all key party structures, he has lost key pillars; his opponents
control the youth and women’s leagues, they control the majority of the
provinces and dominate Parliament.
The situation is such that it is very difficult to see how the man can
pull a shocker and emerge one day with all the State power at his
disposal, especially now that the party itself has, in unison, publicly
declared that there will not be a different head of State and leader of
Zanu PF during Mugabe’s lifetime.
Mugabe has himself further dampened spirits when he recently said he has
no plans to retire anytime soon despite turning 93 and proceeding to
declare that among his lieutenants, he did not see anyone suitable to
inherit his throne, regardless of how long they have served.
It would, however, be imprudent jump from the admiration of such
sentiments into concluding that Mnangagwa is finished, according to
analysts.
And those in Zanu PF know very well that the game is still very far from
being over.
What should not be lost on anyone is the fact that Mnangagwa is one man
who has graduated from the Zanu PF school of hard knocks with flying
colours, little wonder they have nicknamed him Ngwena, the crocodile after
the ferocious yet inconspicuous reptile.
An interesting observation would be that Mnangagwa has endured the longest
possible period of humiliation and frustration in terms of his reported
presidential ambitions and he has somehow managed to remain very much
within the compass.
He first emerged a presidential hopeful as far back as 1999 when he was
serving as acting Finance minister in the absence of the late Bernard
Chidzero when the latter was on a long-term layoff due to terminal
illness.
Curiously, one newspaper article published in November 1999 ahead of Zanu
PF’s congress in December of that year even suggested that steps were
underway to promote Mnangagwa to be party national chairperson to prepare
him for the eventual throne.
It further speculated that Mugabe was to retire ahead of the 2002
presidential election, which of course, did not happen.
The chairmanship, however, went to John Nkomo while Mnangagwa had to
settle for the position of secretary for administration, from which he was
demoted to be secretary for legal affairs at the 2004 congress when he
would actually have been promoted to be vice president and second
secretary.
What has happened since then is too tired a story to be retold, but he has
ended up where he is today, his very position now, once again under
serious threat – never mind the one he is reported to be eyeing.
The coming 2018 general election, in which Mugabe has said he will be the
Zanu F candidate, is one big thing which shall help shape or scar
Mnangagwa’s presidential bid forever.
Critical events are bound to happen between now and then, and careful
calculation is a pre-requisite for both Mnangagwa’s camp and the rival
Generation 40 camp.
There is no margin for error, not forgetting a seemingly resurgent Morgan
Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change who could take advantage
of the catfights to talon the coveted crown.
Political scientist Ibbo Mandaza thinks that there is no end to the
brawling in Zanu PF.
“What Mnangagwa has done is to let other people fight for his cause while
he deceptively publicly disowns them.
“This seems to be working well for him in terms of gaining public sympathy
and shielding him from possible Zanu PF sanction,” said Mandaza.
“However, there is a hell lot more that still needs to be done in this
very complex succession race.
“This Mr Nice Guy posture is certainly not sufficient when the war really
explodes,” he further reasoned.
Political commentator Rashweat Mukundu said: “He (Mnangagwa) would require
the backing of the State machinery which can take care of other political
questions if need arises if he is to succeed, otherwise, it’s a toll
order.”
The sum total of such arguments is that for now, no one really knows what
the future holds, except that in his 201-year fight for presidency, it has
been the proverbial case of being so near, yet so far for Mnangagwa.
His is a story of near misses.
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