Source: The changing face of Harare . . . three decades of growth, cramming and chaos | The Sunday Mail
Harare in 2022 _Google Earth Tawanda Musarurwa
Check Point Desk
OVER the past three decades, Zimbabwe has undergone significant demographic shifts, particularly in the dynamics of rural-to-urban migration.
And due to its level of infrastructure development and attendant opportunities, the capital city — Harare — is bearing the brunt of these demographic shifts.
An analysis of the country’s population and housing census reports of 1992, 2002, 2012 and 2022 reveals evolving patterns in urbanisation and migration.
Harare’s population has grown from 1,48 million in 1992, to 1,89 million in 2002 and to 2,1 million in 2012.
By 2022, it had risen to 2,4 million.
The numbers tell a story, but so, too, does historical satellite imagery of the country’s metropolis.
Historical satellite imagery of the city in 1992, 2002, 2012 and 2022 show both inward expansion and urban sprawl.
Harare in 1992 _Google Earth
Harare in 2002 _Google Earth
Harare in 2012 _Google Earth
Harare in 2022 _Google Earth
From the satellite imagery, in 1992, Harare looked like a city with room to breathe.
Open spaces stretched south and east, neatly separated from the more compact, well-planned urban core.
Fast-forward to 2022, and those gaps had all but vanished, swallowed by a tide of brick, tin and concrete.
Harare has grown, but not in the carefully plotted way urban planners might have hoped.
Instead, its sprawl tells a story of migration, desperation and a system playing catch-up with reality.
The creep of urban sprawl
In 1992, one could trace Harare’s edges clearly: the city sat comfortably in the centre, ringed by farmland and patches of green.
By 2012, the first warning signs of unplanned expansion were visible, particularly in places like Epworth and Harare South, where settlements pushed against the city’s old limits.
By 2022, the boundaries were a polite fiction — urban sprawl had overrun former farmlands, with houses springing up wherever they could fit.
The densest transformation has been in areas like Epworth and Kuwadzana.
Once on the periphery, these neighbourhoods have ballooned with informal housing, a reflection of Harare’s pull factor for jobseekers.
The country’s population and housing census reports back this up: rural-urban migration has been relentless.
But the city’s ability to accommodate new arrivals has not kept pace.
The result? A city that has grown outwards, but without the infrastructure to match.
Green spaces vs concrete
Harare’s green lungs have shrunk.
The historical satellite images tell a grim tale — where farmland once flourished, rooftops now stretch for miles.
In the south, near Waterfalls and Harare South, land that might have once produced maize is now home to crowded, makeshift settlements.
Even the east, traditionally wealthier, has seen green pockets replaced with new developments, often of the commercial variety.
Industry, business and the middle-class squeeze
Msasa — an industrial hub in Harare — has sprawled alongside the city, reflecting the rise of small manufacturing and trade.
Borrowdale and Greendale, once quiet leafy suburbs, have seen pockets of commercial development creep in, catering for a growing urban middle class.
But the squeeze is on: While the affluent fortify their corners of the city, the vast majority of new arrivals have been funnelled into overburdened and underserviced high-density suburbs.
The shrinking of green spaces is, however, not unique to Harare.
According to UN-Habitat’s World Cities Report 2024, on average, the share of green spaces in urban areas globally decreased from 19,5 percent in 1990 to 13,9 percent in 2020.
We created an image overlay by combining the 1992 and 2022 satellite imagery.
Satellite Map Overlay _Google Earth
The overlay highlights significant difference between the 1992 and 2020 satellite images of Harare, with key changes observed in urban infrastructure development and wetland transformation.
Using artificial intelligence to analyse the overlay satellite imagery, roughly 30,84 percent of Harare’s land area has undergone significant change between 1992 and 2020.
This translates to an average annual change of approximately 1,1 percent per year.
The biggest shifts include:
Infrastructure boom
High-density developments in Madokero Estate, Tynwald South and New Marlborough. The northwestern and southwestern outskirts now host new estates and shopping centres.
Wetland destruction
Expansive wetlands have been replaced by roads and buildings, especially in the south and west. This has reduced natural flood control and biodiversity.
Disappearing farmland
Former agricultural land near Westgate and Mount Pleasant Heights is now a built-up urban space. Open lands have fragmented, making sustainable land use planning harder.
Impact of Harare’s changes
Urban expansion has led to the loss of natural spaces, potentially affecting water drainage, air quality and biodiversity.
The decrease in wetlands may contribute to flooding issues, as these areas naturally absorb excess rainwater.
This was well exemplified by the floods in December 2023 that affected informal settlements around Budiriro and Kuwadzana suburbs, which were located in wetland areas.
As executive director of UN-Habitat Ms Anacláudia Rossbach says, “Climate change impacts are unevenly distributed within urban areas.
‘‘Those most at risk from climate change are also those already facing persistent and chronic structural inequalities.
“Informal settlements and slums — typically situated in environmentally sensitive areas and lacking in protective infrastructure — often bear the brunt of climate-related disasters or extreme events.”
Harare has become significantly more built-up, reflecting population growth, but also raising concerns about sustainable land use and infrastructure planning.
Urban planners have highlighted that unplanned urban expansion increases the number of people who are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Renowned urban planning expert Dr Percy Toriro notes most of the expansion in the city’s peri-urban zone has been taking place without relevant supporting infrastructure and services.
“Most of the expansion also goes against the intentions of the current Harare Combination Master Plan, which had carefully planned the City of Harare as well as the linkages with the surrounding satellite towns of Ruwa, Epworth, Chitungwiza, all the way out to Goromonzi and Mazowe,” he said.
“The master plan had carefully assessed the suitability of different land for different uses and so had earmarked areas in the Manyame River Corridor that should be retained as environmental buffers, whilst the fertile land north of the city was supposed to be retained as agriculture and horticulture land for the city’s food security.”
Dr Toriro added that most of these good intentions have been violated by both unplanned and poorly planned developments.
While Harare’s master plan was last updated in 1993, last year, the Government directed the Harare City Council and all other local authorities to submit updated master plans in a move that could curb unplanned expansions across the country.
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