Too early to celebrate

via Too early to celebrate – NewsDay Zimbabwe July 17, 2015

VICE-PRESIDENT Emmerson Mnangagwa made very critical observations about the state of Zimbabwe’s economy during his visit to China and his colleagues in government need to pay heed.

Mnangagwa told Chinese State television broadcaster CCTV the government had to swallow its pride and reverse its hardline policies if Zimbabwe’s economy is to be rehabilitated.

He said the country, described as a jewel by Tanzania’s founding leader Julius Nyerere at independence in 1980, had fallen 20 years behind other African countries in terms of infrastructure development.

Nyerere had advised President Robert Mugabe to take care of the “jewel”, but the advice clearly fell on deaf ears.

Zimbabwe has been on a decline since Mugabe took over largely because of vindictive politics, populist economic policies and corruption.

Mugabe has invested more in retaining power than he has done on laying a framework for positive economic growth.

His government inherited sound infrastructure from the colonial regime of Ian Smith, but years of neglect meant that foundation went to waste.

Mnangagwa’s comments were spot-on because indeed Zimbabwe has fallen far behind its regional counterparts such as Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, Namibia, Angola and Mozambique.

Angola and Mozambique emerged out of civil wars well after Zimbabwe had won its independence and Harare played a leading role in restoring stability in those countries.

Tragically, both Angola and Mozambique are now favoured destinations for Zimbabwean economic refugees.

South Africa, Botswana and Namibia also bear the burden of Zimbabwe’s economic collapse and to a lesser extent Zambia and Malawi feel the weight of the economic reversal at the hands of Mugabe.

Zimbabwe’s economic collapse was precipitated by the chaotic land reform programme that was described as racist and illegal by the South African Development Community (Sadc) tribunal because of the manner it was executed.

That land reform was necessary was never debatable, but the fact that Mugabe was motivated by political expediency than justice condemned the country into international isolation.

The agriculture industry, once the backbone of the economy, was sacrificed with the orgy of violence that accompanied the land reforms.

As if that was not enough, when it was done destroying commercial farms, the government turned its guns on the few foreign companies that had survived the turbulence.

The so-called indigenisation policy poisoned the investment climate and as a result no serious investor wants to put their money in Zimbabwe.

Farm invasions and forced company takeovers made property rights alien in the country and that is the best way to put off investors.

All along, Mugabe and his lieutenants, Mnangagwa included, had chosen to bury their heads in the sand blaming economic sanctions for the economic collapse.

The government said it was looking at China and Russia for economic salvation and there was excitement when Mugabe visited those countries last year to sign the so-called mega deals.

However, the two countries have since proved to the government that investment rules are universal.

It does not matter whether an investor is from Russia or China, they will still insist on guarantees that the country respects property rights and has consistent economic policies.

Mnangagwa’s choice of words in the interview with CCTV pointed to a serious paradigm shift but the only tragedy was that there is no guarantee he was articulating a government position.

Zanu PF, divided by Mugabe’s succession politics, has no cohesive ideology and nothing can be taken for granted.

Mnangagwa’s predecessor Joice Mujuru was fired for allegedly holding views quite similar to those he expressed in that interview.

She was accused of selling out to the West. This is why, no matter how encouraging Mnangagwa’s views were, we would caution against celebrations.