Zim population to grow two-fold by 2032

via Zim population to grow two-fold by 2032 | The Herald December 10, 2015

Paidamoyo Chipunza Senior Health Reporter
Zimbabwe’s population is expected to reach 19,3 million by 2032 up from the current 13,1 million with a bulging economically active age group and a narrow dependent age group, an analysis into the 2012 population census has revealed.

Life expectancy is also projected to increase from 57 to 67 years for males and from 64 to 75 years for women during the same period.

The number of children per woman will also decline from a high of about seven children (1969 census) to about four children per woman in 2032.

The economically active age group (15 to 64 years) is projected to increase from 55 percent to 64 percent while the number of persons below 15 years is projected to decline from 41 percent to 32 percent between 2012 and 2032.

Presenting the population projections, at a local hotel in Harare yesterday, consultant Dr Gibson Mandishona said the average population growth for the projected period is 2 percent compared to 1,1 percent growth in the past 20 years.

“This is due to steadily rising life expectancy at birth, reduced Aids related deaths, expanding educational levels, rising incomes, urbanisation and improved public health systems,” he said.

Mr Mandishona said the number of households was also projected to grow from 3,1 million in 2012 to 5,7 million in 2032.

In her presentation on fertility analysis, consultant Professor Marvelous Mhloyi said data from previous census show that the country’s fertility rate (the number of children per woman) was in transition from a high of about seven children to four in 2032.

She said although the fertility rate was on the decline generally, the number of adolescents and older women (over 35 years) falling pregnant was on the increase.

“Fertility in Zimbabwe still occurs too early (in adolescent girls) and late (women beyond 35 years) and this partly contributes to the high maternal and infant deaths,” she said.

Presenting on mortality trends, which also impact on population structure of the country, consultant Dr Henry Chikova said trends show that death rates were on the decline.

Dr Chikova said although death trends worsened between 1992 and 2002 as a result of HIV and Aids, an analysis into 2012 census results showed that mortality trends were improving.

“A comparison of the 2002 and 2012 population censuses shows that mortality in Zimbabwe significantly improved between the two censuses so did maternal mortality, which reduced by half,” he said.

Dr Chikova attributed the decrease in deaths to availability of antiretroviral drugs which prolonged lives of many.

Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) director general Mr Mutasa Dzinotizei said fertility and mortality rates were key to defining the country’s population growth.

He said analysis by the consultants including the population projections, show that the country was in a demographic transition and stands at a threshold of entering the demographic dividend that can be harnessed in the coming 20 years.

Demographic dividend is the freeing up of resources for a country’s economic development and the future prosperity of its populace as it switches from an agrarian to an industrial economy.

In the initial stages of this transition, fertility rates fall, leading to a labour force that is temporarily growing faster than the population dependent on it. All else being equal, per capita income grows more rapidly during this time too.

“This is not for technical analysis only, The data that we have analysed should now filter to the policy makers to provide basis for their policy formulation,” said Mr Dzinotizei.

Speaking at the same occasion, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) country representative Mr Cheikh Tidiane Cisse said the analysis came at an opportune time when a number of national development processes were taking place.

These processes include the mid term review of the Zimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation (Zim Asset), development of a new Zimbabwe United Nations Development Assistance Framework (ZUNDAF) for period 2016-2020, review of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)and the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).