This is a Crazy World

Trump starting a global trade war which will raise living costs in the USA for every American and increase costs across the globe while slowing economic growth. It flies in the face of 50 years of success for those who stood by globalization and free trade which has steadily expanded trade, unified the world system and lifted billions out of abject poverty. It has created a much more equal world and all of us have benefited.

Then the rise of nationalism – do we forget the lessons of past centuries when nationalism and racially based colonial aggressive expansionism by world powers has led to two World Wars which killed whole generations and cost trillions and set back human progress at all levels. The stupidity of the Spanish civil war, the genocide of Rwanda and Cambodia. Now “America First” and verbal attacks on the independence and sovereignty of Canada, Mexico, Panama and Greenland.

Seemingly the voice of reason and moderation, faith and principle are strangely silent. Remember it was like that in Germany in the lead up to the Second World War. If the Western powers allow Trump to lead the phased take over of Ukraine by Russia to stand, Putin ambitions will rule, and Europe could be plunged into wider conflict. Putin’s fear of NATO is well founded and his ambition to leave brave Ukraine naked and vulnerable is clear. China will take on Taiwan and perhaps India and extend its military mantle over Asia encouraged by the perceived weaknesses in the West.

Compromise with totalitarian States simply makes the democratic world weaker and the former stronger. Watching these States manipulate the new US Administration and enjoy the process is shameful. Remember when Regan called out the Soviet Leadership, exposed its weaknesses and deliberately strengthened US alliances across the Atlantic. In response the seemingly impenetrable Wall crumbled, and freedom reigned where only Moscow had ruled. Poland knows the price paid and is vigilant and principled.

The only way to deal with Russian aggression in Europe it to counter it with strength. Leaving Ukraine to fight alone is not the solution because the contest is unequal. The only solution is to force Russia out of Ukraine – by military means if necessary or by substantial threat to do so, and that must include NATO. I believe that if the western alliance represented by NATO did really stand up to Russia, Putin would climb down as he cannot take on the combined strength of those countries, that is why NATO was created, not to foster aggression but to ensure peace.

Israel perhaps offers a guide in this respect. In the past three years it has reconstructed the Middle East. The US paid a key role by making this possible and building on the courage and integrity of the Israel nation. Ukraine could do the same, but it needs help.

But if we come back to the lessons of history, we can see how the US decision to enter the War with Germany and Japan turned the tide of that conflict, even US support for the Russian war effort which eventually led to German defeat, it was US industrial power on display. Then came the peace after defeat, Russia consolidated its hold on the territory it had liberated and simply extended its colonial reach. The US, under the remarkable leadership of old soldiers, adopted a totally different strategy.

In Japan they recognised the Emperor and helped finance recovery. Japan became a democracy and in 50 years was the second largest economy in the world. Out of the ashes of war, the US, virtually alone, helped the Japanese people back onto their feet. In Europe we saw a similar process, the Marshal Plan used the industrial and financial muscle of the USA to rebuild Western Europe, including Germany. Dynamic European leadership laid the foundations of the European Union – today probably the largest trading block in the world with freedom of movement and democracy.

In 1975, after the death of Mau, it was President Nixon who opened the doors to the “Hidden Kingdom” and brought China into the world system. US policies of free trade did the rest. The Multilaterals and the UN are largely the creation of the USA working with their colleagues. The list goes on and on and all this history seems to be lost in Washington.

For me these failures and success of leadership in the developed world are matched in micro in Africa. We must not think that because all this is going on elsewhere that we are immune. Often global conflicts find their expression in places like Africa where the old colonial conflicts persist. Often, there are conflicts over resources. The French are guilty in much of what was once Francophone Africa, the British less so, if anything the crime of the UK is that they have turned their back on their former colonies in favour of their much larger dependence on Europe. African dependence on demand for resources in the rest of the world is pretty much dominant.

The economy of Africa, unlike that of China, is underrepresented by the statistics, largely because we either do not know what is really going on or we choose not to know. The GDP of Zimbabwe, according to the statistics is about US$40 billion. However, if you could factor in what is really going on here it is probably closer to double that or even more. The same could be said of the rest of Africa. But that does not help when it comes to meeting the needs of our growing and young populations.

Our situation would be much worse without our huge informal sector and Diaspora – together they support the great majority of our people and ensure that real hunger and disease does not decimate our population. Recent efforts to harness the informal sector and remittances are doomed to failure, what we need is sound, market-based policies that will create growth and prosperity for everyone.

Mozambique is slowly settling down under new, younger leadership. Long way to go and the Muslim extremists in the north still need attention, but the important lesson for the rest of us in the region, is the importance of stability and access to trade routes.

In the past month a lot of regional attention has been given to that sleeping giant in Africa, Congo. This country, nearly the size of Europe and with riches untold has been the subject of armed revolt for many years. Today over 250 armed groups operate in the country, most as proxies in the competition for its wealth. It has been the subject of the United Nations peace keeping operations for many years, almost with no effect. Now regional States are paying attention, perhaps that will make a difference.

Eddie Cross

Harare February 21^st, 2025