Recession fears for Zim economy | The Herald

via Recession fears for Zim economy | The Herald May 13, 2014

ZIMBABWE’s economy may slip into recession by 2015 if there are no fundamental policy shifts, according to Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) deputy governor Dr Kupukile Mlambo. Dr Mlambo said this while addressing a recent SAPES and NED conference on Zimbabwe “Going Forward: Consolidating the democratization process and reinforcing re-engagement with the global community.”

“Our estimate at the RBZ is that growth will be negative next year if things continue as they are. Last two months inflation has been negative and if it continues for the third month we enter into deflation. The problem is if this happens we don’t have the instruments to come out of deflation,” said Dr Mlambo.

Dr Mlambo said the country’s $7 billion debt overhang needed to be addressed by adopting the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) strategy which would afford the country debt relief.

“Debt is also of concern to us in particular the arrears which are a major component of the debt; we have to accept that we are a highly indebted poor country. On the continent three countries qualify for HIPC; these are North Sudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe.

However Somalia is likely to get it because it has made more progress”.
He added that government needs to have a predictable policy framework and implement the IMF approved staff monitored programme if it is to gain the confidence of investors and multilateral financial institutions.

“Policy consistency is key to attracting FDI and the staff monitored programme are a means to gain the confidence of investors and international financial institutions if implemented”.

Dr Mlambo said the country needed to find a champion among the Fishmongers group to help it market its policies to the international community.

“We need a champion for our cause in the manner France championed the cause of Ivory Coast or how Japan championed the cause of Burma.
“We need a champion ourselves who must be credible and a member of the Fishmonger group,” said Dr Mlambo – FinX.



  • comment-avatar
    Roving Eagle 9 years ago

    How does a country endowed with a lot of natural resources that prides itself in having an educated populace end up gunning for HIPC? What will it take for mugabe and zpf to admit they are an abject failure at running the economy.

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    No country will be championing Zimbabwe until the government starts implementing the IMF suggestions. One of their biggest suggestions was to reduce the civil service component if the budget to something like 39-40%. Currently it’s at 95%. That means that nearly 60% of all civil service jobs need to be eliminated. ZANU doesn’t like that because paying those needless people helps jeep ZANU in power.

    The other big issue is corruption. It’s been calculated that around 40% of every dollar spent in Zimbabwe supports some form of corruption. That’s all the way from the cop at a roadblock collecting a “fine,” and right up to the fatcats like Cashbert Dube milking the country dry and on to the President taking $500,000 cash money from Treasury every time he leaves the country.

    Until ZANU looks in the mirror and decides to make some changes, nothing will change.

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    Roving Ambassador 9 years ago

    Has to find a Champion to market its policies to the international community.
    Which policies? ZANU has no policies they follow. They cannot even abide by the constitution. Each day a ZANU official makes his or her on policies as they go along.
    The Champion has to be China ,they can stand that rubbish.
    Unfortunately ZANU will never change. Corruption is the key to their survival. ZANU has to buy the Champion first thus mortgaging all the minerals.
    The road is getting bumpier.

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    How about recession now! The only saving grace Zimbabwe has is for a change in government. There is no other option, Mugabe et al has had the “three strikes and you are out” a long time ago. They have tried the “colonialism” excuse, they have tried insult and bluster, they have tried to make it all personal, each time failed. I have no love for Blair and Brown however they had the dignity to just ignore Mugabe and let him make himself a fool. Those silly Pan Africanists who think Mugabe is clever should take a look at the people of Zimbabwe and see what suffering is all about.

    Regime Change is the ONLY option!

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    John Thomas 9 years ago

    Mambo tossing out educated sound phrases that mean nothing in total. This is noise for the sake of noise. I would expect nothing less from a person who is a big cheese at the bankrupt and dysfunctional reserve bank.

    Resign along with all your ZANU brothers Mlambo and the problems will already be started to be solved.

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    Godfrey C 9 years ago

    Haa, so it now looks like Biti was right all along.

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    Godfrey C 9 years ago

    Haa, so it now looks like Biti was right all along. Matimadini Zanu chiororo.

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    Justice 9 years ago

    The guy is a genius no wonder he got the job!

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    This is crazy. If we are not already in recession then what is it called. ZPF are taking us no where! Simple truth! is it not?

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    gorongoza 9 years ago

    What the deputy governor said is true, and he doesnt hide behind a fingure, throwing slogans like sanctions etc. The GOZ simply borrows moneys for luxury consumption purposes (not developmental), and simply ignore to pay back. They have been cruising on that lane forever, as they believe money grows on trees. Now it has come back to haunt us as noone wants to lend a cent to Zimbabwe. No one is ready to invest in Zimbabwe where policy flip-flopping and open threats to investors is the order of day. Fools are running the country and we are paying for that. Nhamo ichatibhabhatidza!

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    Kitsi-yatota 9 years ago

    deputy governor mum, zimbabwe have since slided into a recession, why are daft? negative economic growth has been confirmed by china masses, rbz acting governor and many economists like Eric bloc the central bank body member and advisor to the governor, Eddie Cross, the learned opposition MP etc

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    Jono Austin 9 years ago

    You have to ask why they want debt relief if they are not even making the interest payments. Answer-so that they can then go to the international lending institutions and say ‘see, we have no debt, you can now lend us money for ‘infrastructural development’ aka Mercedes, luxury homes, luxury holidays, shopping trips. Lovely grub if you can get it!