Source: ‘Chances of 2nd GNU are remote’ analysts warn – DailyNews Live
Blessings Mashaya 2 December 2018
HARARE – Analysts say while there is an urgent need for President Emmerson
Mnangagwa and opposition leader Nelson Chamisa to “find each other”,
crises-weary Zimbabweans should not raise their expectations that the two
political rivals will work together anytime soon.
Speaking in interviews with the Daily News on Sunday yesterday – in the
wake of recent suggestions from Zanu PF and the MDC, that Zimbabwe’s two
main political parties could be ready to engage each other in the interest
of the country and its long-suffering citizens – the analysts also warned
that the chances of a second government of national unity (GNU) were slim.
This comes as Zimbabwe remains in the vice grip of a growing economic
crisis which has seen the devastating re-emergence of long fuel queues,
worsening foreign currency shortages and shocking increases in the prices
of basic goods.
As a measure of scale of the crisis facing the country, which has
heightened calls for political dialogue between Mnangagwa and Chamisa,
Zimbabwe’s official inflation hit nearly 26 percent in October – the
highest recorded in the southern African nation since it adopted the
multiple currency system in 2009.
As bad as this official figure appears, particularly given that this is
captured in US dollar terms, many independent economists say the country’s
“real” inflation is in fact way higher – with some experts putting it
close to a staggering 200 percent.
Burning from the resultant economic heat, many Zimbabweans have received
the recent news of possible talks between Mnangagwa and Chamisa
enthusiastically, seeing this as the best route to save the country from
plummeting further to the disastrous economic levels of 2008.
But the analysts who spoke to the Daily News on Sunday yesterday said
these hopes were “over-optimistic”, while talk of a second GNU were “way
premature”.
“It remains unclear whether both sides are actually talking about the same
thing and whether that would lead to a meeting of minds regarding some
kind of power-sharing agreement.
“The MDC is now calling for a national dialogue with key stakeholders, as
well as a transitional authority at the same time, to oversee the
implementation of both needed political and economic reforms.
“Although, the ruling Zanu PF may have some overlapping interests in terms
of some reforms, it seems highly unlikely their government will have any
interest in seeking a power-sharing arrangement,” Piers Pigou, a senior
consultant at the International Crisis Group, said.
“They will not want to give any succour to the MDC’s mantra that Mnangagwa
lacks legitimacy. And as far as I can see, they also don’t believe either
process will or can help them.
“Having said that, they may well engage at some level. But I don’t see any
prospects for a genuine commitment to diluting their control through power
sharing or dialogue processes,” Pigou added.
Another political analyst, Dewa Mavhinga, also said while it was
encouraging that the country’s two political heavyweights were considering
dialogue, the process was likely to be complicated.
“First, there has to be a sound legal and constitutional basis for such
talks. But presently, it does not appear as if there is one.
“Second, both parties must be willing to have the dialogue, but it also
appears as if there are certain pre-conditions that could make the
dialogue impossible,” he said.
“For instance, if Mnangagwa insists that he be recognised as a legitimate
leader first before any talks, is Chamisa willing and ready to do that?
“My sense is that politically, economically and socially, conditions may
need to decline drastically first to raise enough pressure to bring the
polarised leaders to the negotiating table. So far the chances of a GNU
are not that high,” Mavhinga added.
Another political analyst, Rashweat Mukundu, also said Mnangagwa and
Chamisa needed to “find each other first” before they could tackle any
thorny issues in their talks.
“If the two leaders focus on what brings them together rather than what
divides them, then it is possible to have fruitful talks.
“The commonality between the two is to rescue Zimbabwe from this economic
crisis and agree on broad-based political reforms in preparation for 2023.
“This can be the key agenda for the talks and if they agree to work
together beyond these issues then the better for Zimbabwe. We all know
that the GNU period was far better for the country than the period before
and after it,” Mukundu said.
Zimbabwe was forced into a GNU a decade ago, following the hotly-disputed
2008 presidential election in which the late MDC founding leader Morgan
Tsvangirai trounced former president Robert Mugabe hands down.
The results of those elections were withheld for six long weeks by stunned
authorities – amid widespread allegations of ballot tampering and fraud,
which were later revealed by former bigwigs of the ruling party.
In the ensuing sham presidential run-off, which authorities claimed was
needed to determine the winner, Zanu PF apparatchiks engaged in an orgy of
violence in which hundreds of Tsvangirai’s supporters were killed –
forcing the former prime minister in the inclusive government to withdraw
from the discredited race altogether.
Mugabe went on to stand in a widely-condemned one-man race in which he
shamelessly declared himself the winner.
However, Sadc and the rest of the international community would have none
of it, forcing the nonagenarian to share power with Tsvangirai for five
years, to prevent the country from imploding completely.
Mnangagwa – speaking through his spokesperson George Charamba in an
exclusive interview with the Daily News on Sunday’s sister paper, the
Daily News, on Wednesday, said he was open to talks with Chamisa – on the
strict understanding that the MDC leader recognised the president as the
legitimate winner of the country’s hotly-disputed July 30 election.
This, in turn, came after Chamisa and his key lieutenant Tendai Biti had
earlier on Monday told the Commission of Inquiry probing the August 1
shootings in Harare – which left at least six civilians dead – that
political dialogue was the only solution to ending the country’s political
and economic problems.
Chamisa narrowly lost to Mnangagwa in the July 30 presidential election,
before he went on to accuse the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) of
manipulating the results in favour of the Zanu PF leader.
But Mnangagwa’s victory was later upheld by the Constitutional Court,
which ruled that Chamisa had failed to provide evidence that he had won
the election.
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