The Audacity of Grace

Dr “Gucci Grace” Mugabe, the First Lady of Zimbabwe can be truly nominated as the game changer of Zimbabwean politics for 2014. Within a very short period of time, Grace managed to literally turn things upside down within ZANU-PF by instigating inconceivable purges and expulsions. This started with the summary suspension and subsequent expulsion of Rugare Gumbo, a liberation struggle stalwart and former ZANU-PF spokesperson, who was dismissed by Mugabe like a schoolboy from a politburo meeting after being accused of backing the replacement of Mugabe by Vice President Joice Mujuru. This purge took with it other ZANU-PF stalwarts such as Didymus Mutasa who has since turned ill from the developments and ended up with the Vice President herself being biggest causality of all. After facing barrage of accusations from treason to corruption, to unethical behaviour and not being fit for the second highest office of the land, Joice Mujuru is now a former Vice President and an ordinary card carrying member of the party after being fired by Mugabe for “incompetence”. Her alleged allies in the plot to either unseat or assassinate Mugabe, have not been spared and have since been purged from ZANU-PF structures through unprecedented clinical “votes of no confidence” that saw even prominent Mujuru supporter and ZANU(PF) crony businessman, Ray Kaukonde, flee the country in a hurry. This of course includes the dismissal after congress, of a total of eight government ministers by Mugabe as he clears the decks to secure his continued rule and that of Grace. Apparently more is coming. It all started about four months ago, with an informal gathering of ZANU-PF women’s league leadership at Mazowe Estate just about 44 kilometres outside Harare. This is a farm which the First Lady controversially grabbed and subsequently built a state of the art orphanage. At this gathering, it was surprisingly announced that, Opah Muchinguri, the then secretary for ZANU-PF Women’s League, was giving up her influential position in preference of Grace Mugabe. Of course the First Lady enthusiastically embraced the offer and, with unprecedented speed and panache, she was endorsed by all ZANU-PF provinces as the next Secretary of the Women’s and Youth Affairs and head of the ZANU-PF Women’s League to be elected, without contest, at congress. Those who resisted this move did so at their own peril and indeed Grace has since achieved her objective. In the same period, we saw Dr Grace Mugabe controversially acquire a PhD apparently with only two months of study. Her Masters thesis was curiously “upgraded’’ because of its high standard! Grace also held countrywide rallies on her “meet the people” tour whose source of funding remains curious and is rumoured to have come from a British fugitive businessman now settled in Zimbabwe. During these rallies, shockingly supported by the presence of some government ministers, she unashamedly tore into the Vice President Joice Mujuru, as corrupt, unfit for office and plotting not only to assassinate President Mugabe but threatening to make Grace’s life hell on earth once Mugabe goes. The rest is history. The fate of current Vice President Joice Mujuru, whom most expected to take over from President Mugabe, has clearly dumbfounded many astute political pundits. Rumours are abounding that Joice Mujuru will soon face treason charges and is under house arrest, although she has denied the latter. The drama is still unfolding with numerous permutations of her possible options being touted by the media and analysts. One thing is very clear though, she has very little room to manoeuvre will no doubt be closely watched by ZANU-PF going forward. It is now clear, whether we like it or not, that Dr Grace Mugabe now holds considerable sway in who becomes what within ZANU-PF and government as along as Mugabe is alive. The speculation is that Mugabe will retire sometime next year paving the way for Emmerson Mnagagwa who is now one of the two new Vice Presidents, to become President while Grace Mugabe is most likely to become one of the Vice President. An alternative scenario is that Grace herself could be nominated by Mugabe to be his successor and therefore could become the first female President of the Republic of Zimbabwe. This would give comfort to the Mugabes knowing that the family will be secure in the event of his death. However, if Mugabe dies before 2018, it’s really anyone’s guess what will happen since Grace has certainly made a lot of enemies. A Zimbabwe under Grace Mugabe although currently unimaginable, could be interesting in that for the first time, the lie that only those who participated in the armed struggle can be President would have been disproved. Interestingly, her lack of experience and perceived average intellect could be a blessing in disguise in that she could listen and be open to advice, something that President Mugabe clearly abhors and has dismally failed to do. By surrounding herself with new people that are not necessarily drawn from within current ZANU-PF ranks and by seeking a coalition of democratic forces, she could be the rabbit out of the box for Zimbabwean politics and herald a new era of political inclusion driven through persuasion and national consensus. The question which continues to haunt such a scenario is of course the possible reaction by the army generals to such developments. Would they accept her as a leader or would they summarily assassinate her? The latter is of course too ghastly to contemplate and I suspect that she will only be allowed to prevail if she pledges to protect those that have committed crimes under the Mugabe regime. The critical issues that need to be addressed in Zimbabwe are leadership accountability, corruption (especially in the mining sector), job creation, the provision and basic services, infrastructure rehabilitation, restructuring of state enterprises, foreign direct investment and political and economic inclusion. That certainly seems a tall order for someone with Grace’s intellect and management experience. She certainly will not be able to do that alone nor will she find the requisite leadership talent and skills within ZANU-PF. This poses an exciting opportunity for all. Clearly ZANU-PF has been weakened by Mugabe’s purges and this poses a great risk for any post Mugabe leadership within the party and the country especially if he is not around to contest the 2018 elections. This will certainly embolden opposition parties particularly Morgan Tsvangirai who is most likely to win any free and fair election against ZANU(PF) as he has done before. The possible outcomes of the recent political drama within ZANUPF) are numerous some of which some are that; ZANU-PF regroups and gathers around Vice President Mnangagwa who takes a moderate and inclusive approach as he awaits his rise to the throne. To do that, he must appease the First Family by not being too aggressive and different in his approach. This means he will be somewhat constrained on what he can really do until Mugabe is no longer around. We therefore cannot expect any dramatic changes in his approach towards policy and governance as long as Mugabe is alive. Or Mugabe could retire and nominate Grace to take over from him but I suspect that can only work if he is still around to support Grace from behind the throne. In that case, the current ZANU-PF leadership is bound to support any of his moves as we have seen lately. Grace could then become President with Mugabe controlling things from behind and try to secure her political future. She will of course be constrained on what she can do but she is more likely take the risk than Mnangagwa and change course since she is the only one who can defy Mugabe without fatal consequences. Or ZANU-PF could disintegrate without Mugabe and we could see a strong opposition coalition emerging to take over power in 2018. My conclusion is that 2015 is going to be an interesting and decisive year in the politics of Zimbabwe. Much of this will depend on whether Mugabe stays alive or not. His demise will definitely see dramatic and immediate changes and political realignments especially among opposition parties who have been surprisingly quiet and patiently watching development within ZANU-PF. We are also bound to see further turmoil within ZANU (PF as those that have been scared to challenge Mugabe raise their heads and seek positions. The pivotal factor will certainly be whether Mnangagwa or Grace will prevail and be able to hold ZANU-PF together. We however cannot deny the fact that Grace Gucci Mugabe has surprisingly changed the political game in Zimbabwe and our politics will really never be the same again. Whether she ultimately becomes the beneficiary of all this is still not evident but with Mugabe alive and scheming as he always done behind his wife, success is almost assured.

Vince Musewe is an independent Zimbabwean economic writer and analyst. The opinions and views expressed in this article are the responsibility of the author. The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung does not necessarily subscribe to the opinions and views.