What happens when Mugabe dies?

via What happens when Mugabe dies?  JANUARY 14, 2014 By Shingi Chimwaza NehandaRadio

Whilst I stand to be ridiculed by dare discussing an eventuality, that a lot of hangers-on to the aged Zimbabwean leader, wish would never become a reality, all the same, some things still need to be said.

The post-Mugabe era is like a time bomb that Mugabe himself has been all this while strapping round himself like a suicide bomber on a mission to punish people for a reason he himself is not sure of its justification.

The point according to the topic of this discussion however is that God has always proved that all men are mortals and no matter how many doctors they employ in their rank and file, he created the human body with such precision that as you get around certain figures in age, it will be stupid for you and the people around to find it taboo to discuss your imminent demise.

The president of the Republic of Zimbabwe is behaving like a reckless father who creates a great deal of discord and mistrust in his household but still vows on intending to die without writing a will. How stupid and selfish!

It is not a secret that politics in Zimbabwe now revolves around the succession issue in ZANU PF to the extent that it may not be deemed far fetched to suggest that even the destabilization in the main opposition party MDC-T is a result of the fateful process.

I even dare push my argument further on the basis of allegations that the succession debacle in the MDC-T is to a certain extent controlled by one faction in the former liberation party as they wish to remain with an opposition that will be more willing to be swallowed.

In essence we are talking of an opposition that will be corruptible such that it may be willing to turn a blind eye and become more willing to start on a fresh page and ignore the current looting and corruption that has gained the country such notoriety.

As a country we need to be very afraid since the factions in ZANU PF and MDC T are fertile breeding grounds for a violent scramble for power in the event of a sudden exit of Zim 1 through God’s will as my discussion suggests.

What makes the impending eventuality (the demise of Zim 1) even more frightening is the long shadow of the secret services and the military in the proxy wars in both parties leaving those of us privileged with sharp eyes, to see where the balance of power lies.

So we ask our selves, does this mean if the factional wars are allowed to continue until we wake up one morning to the bad news, the country may fall in the hands of ZIM 2?

This is not a wild imagination! If Mugabe is to die, leaving his party as divided as it is today, chaos may prevail thus making a military takeover imminent. If we are to focus on ZANU PF and the way the Mnangagwa and Mujuru factions are willing to destroy each other in the literal sense in order to prop up their ‘horse’ we have to be very afraid.

The coming ZANU PF elective congress also does not guarantee us, as a country that the succession issue in the revolutionary party will be solved and allow the country to move on with much certainty. If one is to take a closer look at the proxy wars in the provinces, you then realize how the grassroots come in the mix and how this is a recipe for disaster!

You then cross the political divide and look at the MDC T and those in it, who have shown intentions to cooperate with ZANU PF and take a closer look at which faction they seem to be warming up to.

There is a faction in ZANU PF that despite having equally looted, they have lost dear ones in such spectacular fashion thus falling into the intersection of the two warring MDC T factions, and thus intentionally or unintentionally covertly work with them. This is the Mujuru faction, and the opposition appear to be more willing to have Joyce Mujuru takeover from Mugabe and set the ground for free elections.

The above scenario becomes so complicated, not only for the simple minded, but even to those of us who have been watching events closely because it leaves the other ZANU PF faction (the crocodile’s) with no option but to cooperate with ZIM2 and become the civilian face of an imminent military dictatorship that may strip all the “gains” of independence left.

It is not a secret that this is the faction largely credited with the electoral victory that left some ZANU PF candidates more alarmed than happy with their own victory.

The whole population is now taking a serious interest in the succession battle in ZANU PF, and in the process temporarily ignoring their respective political inclination. This is a result of a realization that solving the succession issue in ZANU PF, especially with a Mujuru victory amounts to a complete different kind of politics in the post –Mugabe era whilst a Mnangagwa win would condemn the country to a kind of life they have not even experienced yet.

It is also important to keep in mind that the mining industry has been personalized by more people in the faction that cooperates with the military and my prayer is that, these minerals may not become a cause for a violent conflict, with the masses being pushed to the edge and left with no option but demand survival violently in a do or die fashion.

My fear is justified by the fact that Mujuru has a large grassroots support base comparable to that enjoyed by Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC, therefore if Mnangagwa is to come to power courtesy of a Zim2 propping, a combined Tsvangirai and Mujuru grassroots support base may consider a confrontation with the new oppressor.

I belong to a school of thought that subscribes to non-violent conflict and Morgan Tsvangirai and his party have always earned my sympathy because of their triumph in overcoming temptation to pick the gun especially when their support was at its peak like in the early 2000′s.

I also subscribe to the notion of tolerance and unity that have always been preached by Solomon Mujuru and his wife. I remember at one rally Solomon Mujuru urged ZANU PF supporters to desist from saying ‘Pasi na Tsvangirai (Down with Tsvangirai), because according to him there was no reason to wish him dead.

I however become very afraid each time I imagine a Mnangagwa presidency and an imminent resistance that the population of Zimbabwe may put against it. Most times people are even tempted to exonerate Mugabe of many evil deeds but pile all of them on the crocodile and some elements in the junta. This illustrates how soiled the crocodile and his team is in ordinary Zimbabweans’ eyes!

It is not a secret that the crocodile is not blessed with much grassroots support, but has an overwhelming support from the junta, which would make his presidency even more illegitimate. As a people we now know that an illegitimate presidency always repels investors and has less genuine friendships in the family of nations.

Whilst I remain greatly opposed to ZANU PF’s culture of corruption and impunity, like many other Zimbabweans it remains my prayer that the moderates in that party may win the party presidency and pave way for a peaceful Zimbabwe in which a ZANU PF victory may be embraced by the international community and an opposition victory also accepted at home by the former liberators.

Shingi Chimwaza is from the Fletcher Summer Institute Alumni Network-A group under the International Center For Non-Violent Conflict. He writes in his own capacity

 

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33 comments on “What happens when Mugabe dies?
  1. Simple answer. When muggersboy bites the dust the rest of zanoids will follow suit. We have instilled fear into their cold hearts.let dog eat dog. Their families relatives will lose their ill gotten gains at the snakepit at our new chikurubi

    • Kunyepa says:

      This is an immoral question posed by people with ulterior motive. Zimbabwea has a valid constitution constituted recently. All answers are there in black and white,unless someone is exhibiting Ignorance in broad daylight.

  2. Cowardly article by gullible naive armchair pseudo academics who is gutless about knowing what the real povo really want

  3. gabarinocheka mugabe says:

    the author of this article should stop writing . he lacks substance in his story

  4. die groot wyt aap says:

    dunno, but there’s a lot of us that look forward to finding out.

    sweet dreams comrades, sweet dreams

  5. Tjingababili says:

    BURIED AT ZANUPF HEROES ACRES!

  6. Chamunorwa says:

    Shiiiiii! Quiet please, keep on listening, maybe if you listen carefully you well hear, only if you look carefully, you will see, the two are combined. How the cap fits, let them wear it. Roots-rock was my bed last night and rock stone was my pillow. Them belly full but we are hungry, cost of living getting so high and they say ohh!! what a jubilation. Some people will eat and drink with, them behind you try to sususususus upon you and a lot of people will run away.

  7. John Thomas says:

    There will be an election under international supervision and ZANU will implode. This is the only end game. Sooner or later this is what will happen. Everything else is delaying tactics and temporary measures.

  8. Mangwana says:

    The simple answer is ZUNDE will form a people’s government & take the nation forward. If in doubt, just look at their website, http://www.zunde.org. Wauya mukushi!!!!!!

    • Surat Diamond Centre says:

      Why to hide the Identity, Simple Answer: ZUNDE will form a people’s Government & Take the Nation Forward.
      It’s MDC-T & Mujuru’s Joint Efforts to Launch New party to form new Government.
      Refer: website:www.zunde.org

  9. Most people who comment here do not know Zanupf. You will know it the day Mugabe dies then. All the Zanupf gurus have looted and they will do everything to protect their loot. The state machinery is at their disposal. The will be very foolish to let go their riches and hand themselves to you for whatever prosecution. They will defend themselves by prosecuting you much more than Mugabe. Every political party has factions.In the US candidates will even publicly contest against each other at party level. Zanupf is no exception. And Bob is very clever because all the factions are his supporters. This is not an accident. They do it deliberately. People should have and should still want change now instead of dreaming that Zanupf f

  10. Most people who comment here do not know Zanupf. You will know it the day Mugabe dies then. All the Zanupf gurus have looted and they will do everything to protect their loot. The state machinery is at their disposal. The will be very foolish to let go their riches and hand themselves to you for whatever prosecution. They will defend themselves by prosecuting you much more than Mugabe. Every political party has factions.In the US candidates will even publicly contest against each other at party level. Zanupf is no exception. And Bob is very clever because all the factions are his supporters. This is not an accident. They do it deliberately. People should have and should still want change now instead of dreaming that Zanupf factions will loose focus. They their loot to protect even if it means dieing for it. This means that they are prepared to kill for it too whether Mugabe is alive or not. Do not be fooled.

  11. NBS says:

    The church in Zimbabwe needs to stand up and be what she is supposed to be. We need repentance and prayer. Zimbabwe does not need more chaos and to be honest it is highly irresponsible of Mugabe and ZPF to leave the whole succession thing hanging. This is not their nation it belongs to all of us under the Creator himself. I am sick and tired of ZPF laying claim to Zimbabwe and running it like their own thiefdom- sorry I mean fiefdom.

  12. Senzachena says:

    I am planning a dead MUGABE party, once that is over we must plan to send as many of his hangers on as possible the same way! God help us if Munangagwa wins the fight

  13. Saddened says:

    Whoever takes over will still have the economy, that is in ICU and the real enemy, to contend with. More than likely a case of be careful what you ask for – you might just get it. Good luck to whoever takes over -you are going to need it & much more!

  14. God bess baba Mugabe becoz chero vakafa hatina chatiwana mahara!sei tiChitanga taplana munhu ari mupenyu nekty zvinoita sekuty tinenge tichifarira kufa kwemunhu!NHAKA INOKOIWA KANA MUNHU UCHINGE WAFA!Vana vemadzimbabwe mw@indwa nei

  15. Surat Diamond Centre says:

    Hope, he is alive, We Pray for his Long life and healthy Life till his Last Breath.

    • LUCY says:

      I couldn’t care less whether he is gone ,crawled under a rock, gone to Siberia or the Antactica I just hope he doesn’t return.
      Don’t blame me for being ‘hard’ I learnt from the best>> BOB’S SCHOOL OF HARD KNOCKS>>>>

  16. Mixed Race says:

    Makes no difference to me who will take over because everything happens for a reason.Sometimes things have to go worse before they become better.In the early eighties the people in Mid and Mat went through limited military control so it does not worry us here.This writer should know that its common in Africa to have funny administrations but things change at the end due to world and financial pressures.Just look at Burma and Nigeria now.

  17. clever says:

    lets wait and see wats going to happen

  18. clever says:

    he is a hero

  19. kiddnile says:

    The country will have a good opportunity to move forward-that’s great to me.

  20. Khaya'bonina says:

    Look here , ZANU PF will secure their top seat , never under estimate the likes of Mnangwanga and his faction , believe me its not going to be as easy as you think , we might see another guguraunda this time stricking the Mashonaland provinces , correcting mistakes which were caused by the leadership of Mugabe would never be a smooth process, we might even reach a stage to regret and say Mugabe was better , Mujuru might even see a danger to her life and escape for safety . We might celebrate Mugabe’s death but that might be followed by tears , remember if all security spheres of Zimbabwe , police force and the army decide to stand up and protect ZANU PF they will do it messless -you know what i mean —-We need to be extra careful.

  21. Boorangoma says:

    Most of the people who comment here seem NOT to have gone thru the NEw Constn. In the event of Mugabe resigning then a New Presidential Election will follow. In the event that he dies then his Vice will take over for the remaining term. So technically there does not seem to be a new Presidential Election soon But the Economy is going to torture Mugabe to death shortly( not that i wish death on anyone). The election was rigged for Power but with companies closing left right centre (today QV Pharmacies is closing) the centre can not hold anymore.. and a greater lesson was learnt as Tsvangirai rightly pointed out ..”You can rig the election but you will not be able to rig the economy “

  22. moyokumusha says:

    Shingi you are spot on and this has been a concern of mine for a while and I too am concerned about the post Mugabe period. Too many have looted and have too much blood on their hands and know that the International Criminal Court is prepared for their arrival and prosecution, so at whatever cost they are going to hang on to power albeit for a short but no doubt violent period. They have no choice and no where to run to. It is the people of Zimbabwe who will suffer even greater suppression.
    You omit to express a concern for all the deals ZANUPF have committed us to and how we are going to rid our country of all the Chinese etc. They will want their pounds worth of flesh and will use their power to ensure they have who they want in to protect their interests, so on that basis it is going to be the crocodile who will take the reins and enforce his will.

  23. gorongoza says:

    This article is spot-on.

  24. Tawanda says:

    When a spider dies the web disintegrates

  25. Let him rigg the economy not spend tym colapes wakeup colapes,colapes for good

  26. easily fooled says:

    ZANU PF cannot be considered that threatful any more mr writer. Consider the Chihuriz, Bonyongwes and Chiwengaz all in their late 70s and mid 80s. Mutasa is already epiletic. Due to that lack of renewal, vultures will come from inside and outside ZPF to swallow ZPF. Look at their shallow mindedness and lack of wit. They cant manage their own internal disputes, they need a vulture from outside to resolve their internal fights, a case of Gono v Kereke, where Biti has been roped in as “mediator”. They are brainless eg Mavahaire, minister of energy, Chinotimba, Jonathan what what, Super Mandiwanzira…..what do they know to build this country? Nothing.

  27. ROCKSTONE says:

    Lets all pray to God instead of wishing Mugabe to die , remember , they will be mayhem after his depature, anenge atova maone

  28. chu says:

    The 20th century has been dubbed a century of warfare. Ask yourselves, why! The simple reason is that people’s heads are so naive and mixed so much so that there has never been light in the eyes of many-some thought they were more special than others (eugenics) while others felt they were more powerful or more religious. Others didn’t care about anything. For some it was ignorance; they could be drafted into stupid wars to fight for no cause at all. Some militants just enjoyed using the gun and died for that. By the end of the 20th century after murderous wars across the globe people then became a little bit sensible and a small breather and glimmer of hope could be seen – up to this day. The truth remains that people are idiots. They can only learn the hard way,not easily. Ask yourself why a normal person can vote to die of hunger, lack of medicine or brutal dictatorship. It’s puzzling! God have mercy on your people; shorten the period of suffering especially for Zimbos!

  29. Mixed Race says:

    @Chu spot on.Only Zimbabweans are idiots.Look at countries around us.

  30. shaz says:

    Akangofa tongoviga kuheros acre and our nhamo still continues.muchatoijaira chete.kkkkkkkk vapanduki

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