Whither Mai Mujuru?

via Whither Mai Mujuru? The Zimbabwean 15 October 2014 by Vince Musewe

Politics is a dirty game. One minute you could be at the top, and the next minute you are thrown into the gutter simply because of raw human ambition for power and status. I am quite curious as to what thoughts could be going through Dr. Mujuru’s mind these days. What are her options?

One scenario could be that she prevails and becomes the next President of Zimbabwe, but the odds are stacked against her at this stage. If she becomes President, it would be difficult for her to work with Grace and those who have come out in the open against her.

She would have a hostile and uncooperative Women’s League to deal with. That would be untenable and bad for a country that needs a new president to focus on economic recovery and not internal power struggles.

It would also be difficult for her to work with the Mnangagwa camp, who no doubt would never accept her authority. Her rise to the highest office in the land would certainly lead to divisions within Zanu (PF) and potentially create two centres of power. Without the security establishment firmly behind her, she will not last at all.

Let’s assume that Grace achieves her ambition, becomes VP and Mujuru is the casualty. She could retire from politics and run her family business empire as her late husband did. I am sure over the years she has developed good business networks that she can use or call favours from.

However, things could be made difficult for her by Zanu (PF). She could be frozen out of business. This is the consequence of being on the wrong side of the patronage system – it’s good when you are on the inside and unprofitable when you are on the outside. It could be case of chickens coming home to roost given how she has in the past denied others business opportunities. An example here is how she fought hard against the awarding of Econet cellular phone licence to Strive Masiyiwa; a taste of her own medicine perhaps?

Another option could be for her to get back into politics. She could walk out of Zanu (PF) in disgust and establish her own political party – given that she has followers both in and outside the party.

We could see a scenario similar to South Africa’s Congress of the People (COPE), which walked out of the ANC in disgust. Unfortunately it didn’t last due to bickering amongst its leaders. However Joice would have the money and the numbers to achieve some sort of respectable impact. This would reduce the ZANU (PF) vote in her strong constituencies, particularly Mashonaland West and East.

She could also join an existing opposition party or establish a coalition with opposition forces, but which one? Would Tsvangirai embrace her and gather the additional numbers to fight Zanu (PF)? She would bring significant institutional memory and intelligence to the table including the ruling party’s tactics and secrets with regard to 2013 and the coming 2018 elections. This could be interesting.

This could also negatively impact Tsvangirai, as it could be taken as confirmation that he has been collaborating with Zanu (PF) all along. But it would surely be a blow to Zanu (PF). Mujuru would no doubt be branded traitor – and we know what they do with traitors.

She could join Biti and Mangoma, or establish a coalition with them, but I doubt that could happen given that the Renewal Team is really about leadership renewal. I know they will not have anything to do with Zanu (PF). But if Mujuru can strengthen them against Tsvangirai, they might consider that as an option. There are no permanent friends or enemies in politics, so I would not completely rule this out.

She could also join up with Simba Makoni at Mavambo. That could be interesting as the two Zanu (PF) alumni could cause some damage. Other party members could then openly follow – as was expected when Simba launched Mavambo. This would strengthen that party and deliver Mujuru’s constituency into their lap, but who would be the boss? Therein lies the problem.

Zanu (PF) is inadvertently shooting itself in the foot by marginalising Mujuru. Her demise would clearly see a seismic shift. I don’t think that staying in the party would be a wise option – but if she leaves that could be a dangerous game to play.

It’s a case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The next couple of months will be interesting. – Vince Musewe is an economist and author based in Harare. You may contact him on vtmusewe@gmail.com

COMMENTS

WORDPRESS: 20
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    Tozvirevakupiko 8 years ago

    Or it could get very ugly- as it sometimes does in Zanu – she could have an ‘accident’!!! I dont wish this at all.

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    If she lands the highest office in the land, Women’s league will be re aligned. She has huge support from the army. CIO and the police. They’re are just silent.

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    Black Bull 8 years ago

    No , no. She should hang on and make a surprise move at the end

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    gandanga 8 years ago

    Teurairopa vahombe

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    Kufandada 8 years ago

    Mugabe is old and is no longer in control.He is like Kamuzu Banda or Mubaraka in their last days and will be abandoned by the security forces ‘for the people’.It is inconceivable that Grace Mugabe can ever be elected Vice President of ZanuPF.Mujuru camp is in control of the provinces.She will be nominated and elected Vice President of ZanuPF.Failing that there will be a permanent split of ZanuPF.Mavambo will be strengthened and there will be a coalition of forces that include all the MDCs,Margaret Dongo and Dumiso Dabengwa for the Mother Party to save Zimbabwe.Grace Mugabe will be the catalyst for a United Front for Zimbabwe.Bring it on.

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    Ndozvatangomirira chete.She was the legal sub on the bench.Only one to come from the terreces and straight into the pitch.Hazvigone.

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    Swagman 8 years ago

    “Delegates, Emissaries, Diplomats,
    Heads of State, Representatives
    Ladies and Gentlemen, here at the
    69th session of the United Nations,
    thank you for this opportunity to
    address you all.

    Firstly, may I thank our generous
    hosts, these amazing United States
    of America for their unstinting hospitality,
    and especially for the far-sighted, blessed
    and most capable President, Barack Obama.

    I, Robert Gabriel Mugabe, a guest in these
    Hallowed Halls, apologize most profusely.
    I was the Hope and Savior of Rhodesia/Zimbabwe,
    but lost my way and my destiny!

    I was a Knight of the British Empire, respected,
    adored and raised upon a pedestal. I then fell!
    My ego, greed, selfishness and ultimately my
    tribalism, created death, hurt, anger and fear
    amongst my People. An ancient People!

    I turned into a Devil’s Advocate, killing, maiming,
    robbing, stealing and threatening my People.
    I robbed my country of billions, holding my Police,
    Army, Government and Party to ransom. They conspired.

    I am a fraud, a thief, I murdered 30,000 innocents
    and made destitute a country I was entrusted with,
    the Jewel of Africa, the envy of the entire Continent.

    I come here today to give myself up, to the International
    Criminal Court in The Hague, as a genocidal, murderous
    Dictator. I, the so-called Most Excellent President
    of the Republic of Zimbabwe, has also ordered that my wife,
    Grace Mugabe and my culpable lieutenants,
    to also forfeit their lives and livelihoods.

    I admit all my Crimes Against Humanity, the Mugabe embezzlement
    of Zimbabwe’s riches in diamonds, gold, platinum and currency.
    My fortune, estimated at $4.5 billion dollars, excluding the
    $9.6 billion I removed from Libya’s Muammar Gadaffi’s coffers.

    I ask that I be immediately be taken into custody by the
    British authorities, whom I believe will treat me most judiciously.
    It was my love of Saville Row suits, Harrod’s potted pheasant, Selfridge’s
    delicious Cream Teas and of course, my Rolls Royce’s from
    Goodwood, West Sussex, England, that created the Mugabe Monster.

    As I give myself up to the Hague, the British, the Americans,
    I will maintain this one thing to my grave, and that is –
    I BLAME IT ALL ON THE ILLEGAL SANCTIONS!

    God Bless Zimdesia and Morgan Tsvangarai 2015!
    Cry NOT Your Beloved Country, ever again!

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    I donot like Grace neither do I like Mujuru. Yet the last few weeks have made me despise Grace. She has done nothing but prove beyond doubt that she is vile and from the gutter. She is trash and does not deserve to represent the people of Zimbabwe in any capacity particularly international.

    I cannot see that classless gutter mouth sitting with other first ladies and sipping tea and commanding respect.

    On the other hand I want to commend Mujuru for thus far not stooping to DisGracelessness’s level and exchanging barbs with her or her band of sick followers.I still do not like her AND HOPE NEITHER SHE NOR MNANGAGWA with his side eyes never rule Zimbabwe.

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    the only reason why some of us are busy trotting around the country in the name of thanking the people is nothing but fear, fear of Mai Mujuru. I can tell you that, she commands a lot of respect and support within Zanu pf and all in sundry-Varikuva kwata.

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    mpeiwa 8 years ago

    I like the way Amai Mujuru is behaving, she never say a word, the only time she send Dokora to read her speech, she was talking about unity.Again I repeat my comments, barking dogs seldom bite. They was nothing wrong in Mujuru saying Mugabe is getting old and at one time he will retire. She never said she wanted to take over, but as the first vice president, she had the right to say one day she will take over, whether its in 15 years or more. To me Mujuru doesn’t have a faction, those who have factions, are there to stop her. Mnangagwa proved to be the trouble causer, he doesn’t want to respect his senior, hence he brought Grace.

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    Bruce 8 years ago

    I do not like anyone from ZANU PF either. I recall the lies of the whole group that they are the ones who liberated the country from the British ahen in fact Britain left Zimbabwe during the UDI days. They lie that they defeated Britain when there was not even one British airforce or British army during the war. They lie saying that they liberate us from colonialism when every one in Zimbabwe during those days contributed one way or annother towards his freedom. We could not all have guns, where who was going to cook and provide shelter and moral support. There were many parties that had part to play. Right now the country is like a paria state, no freedom of speach, movement, association, massive corruption, unemployment, roads and general infrustructure is in poor state all because of ZANU PF including mai Mujuru too. However what is happening to her I feel sorry for her as human being and as a mother. She does not deserve the scheming and all this tricks being played by Grace and partners. Grace is supposed to be shamed of her ways because Mujuru is a elder and associate of her husband. Mnangagwa should respect her since if Emmerson is a true commrade he should know that as a ex-combatant a wife of a senior army official is automatically a senior two. More still that in ZANU PF there is a hierachy, he must respect her and follow process of promotion in the party. Nevertheless Mujuru is behaving more respectible by being silent, she is earn the respect. peopple will sympathise with her as victim, this may even endear her with soem people in her party. I do not support ZANU PF neither do I want ZANU PF to be in power. I may support anyone except ZANU PF.

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    Bruce 8 years ago

    I do not like anyone from ZANU PF either. I recall the lies of the whole group that they are the ones who liberated the country from the British ahen in fact Britain left Zimbabwe during the UDI days. They lie that they defeated Britain when there was not even one British airforce or British army during the war. They lie saying that they liberate us from colonialism when every one in Zimbabwe during those days contributed one way or annother towards his freedom. We could not all have guns, where who was going to cook and provide shelter and moral support. There were many parties that had part to play. Right now the country is like a paria state, no freedom of speach, movement, association, massive corruption, unemployment, roads and general infrustructure is in poor state all because of ZANU PF including mai Mujuru too. However what is happening to her I feel sorry for her as human being and as a mother. She does not deserve the scheming and all this tricks being played by Grace and partners. Grace is supposed to be shamed of her ways because Mujuru is a elder and associate of her husband. Mnangagwa should respect her since if Emmerson is a true commrade he should know that as a ex-combatant a wife of a senior army official is automatically a senior too. More still that in ZANU PF there is a hierachy, he must respect her and follow process of promotion in the party. Nevertheless Mujuru is behaving more respectible by being silent, she is earn the respect. peopple will sympathise with her as victim, this may even endear her with soem people in her party. I do not support ZANU PF neither do I want ZANU PF to be in power. I may support anyone except ZANU PF.

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      jongwe 8 years ago

      well said Bruce, it needs putting the record straight. Kissinger ensured the demise of Smith by pressuring South africa to stop its support. But at the end of the day Rhodesia was untenable, as was colonialism, so zanu should shut up about its great ‘victory’ and get on with running the country

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    Rwendo 8 years ago

    As I commented before elsewhere, it remains to be seen if in the months leading up to Congress mai Mujuru has been frozen in fear or if she is merely quietly biding her time -“chedembo tamba tamba muswe ndakabata” as I put it.

    The latter scenario is more likely. Grace seems to have been an act by desperate forces; throwing the cat amongst the pigeons, hoping to throw opponents into a panic. Plus (her own personal agenda) flying a kite to see how high she might manage to go.

    The obvious, mutually advantageous objective for Mugabe and Mnangagwa appears to be to prevent Mujuru from taking over the Presidium if her sympathizers ascend to the 2nd VP and the National Chairman positions.

    So what seems an acceptable (and most likely) outcome for the Mugabe/Mnangagwa alliance is for S.K. Moyo to be blocked from ascending to VP (so that an alternative, ‘neutral’ former ZAPU person is appointed to VP e.g. Mohadi) and for Mutasa to be blocked from ascending to National Chairman if S.K Moyo stays put. Muchinguri and Mnangagwa could then share Organizing and Finance Secs.

    The best possible (early Christmas) outcome for the Grace/Mnangagwa alliance would be if the mudslinging at Mujuru by Grace, Mutsvangwa and others was effective, thereby opening up a challenge on Mujuru’s position, especially if some of her senior sympathizers are frightened into deserting her camp. Muchinguri and Mnangagwa could then share VP and Chairman positions (with Grace probably scheming she might get in on the VP act). However this would probably destabilize the balance of power, and open up the possibility of breaking up the party, so it is less likely to be desired by Mugabe himself.

    However, for the country and for the opposition, isn’t paradoxical that if Grace and Mnangagwa succeed, this might actually be our best hope for the country to get past Zanu PF’s stranglehold on us all?

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    Phunyukabemphethe 8 years ago

    They are all Gukurahundis; it doesn’t matter which one. Let the worst of the worst evils befall them. There belong nowhere but in Satan’s Kingdom. Evil Savages!!

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    Jute Julie 8 years ago

    Mai Mujuru, ramabai zvenyu makanyarara. Silence is golden. What goes around will come around.
    This is the time for you to pray to God for forgiveness of all your sins, and to pray for Grace and Opah, who are so lost, and for and all those drunk with hatred for you.

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    Grace Mugabe-Gono 8 years ago

    Mujuru is alright about Bob is old

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    Nyati 8 years ago

    They are all guilty of letting the country burn as they seek personal survival.
    is mugabe already dead?

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    Wait a minute every body remember in the newspapers it said its her first tour of meet the people may be in the second she would go for Mnangagwa and we all egg in our Faces,Mugabe and his tricks we shall see in December